As Bangladesh gears up for its 2026 national election, the spotlight is on the country's two major political parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, and their bold promises for economic transformation. With a focus on job creation, industrialisation, and investment, these parties aim to tackle pressing issues and deliver a brighter future for the nation. But here's where it gets controversial: can they really walk the talk and fulfill their ambitious pledges?
Both BNP and Jamaat have emphasized the importance of creating jobs, fostering a business-friendly environment, empowering youth, and driving industrial development. These promises have been well-received by economists and business leaders, who see potential in their vision. However, the devil is in the details, and questions arise about the practicality and feasibility of these plans.
The current economic landscape in Bangladesh presents a challenging backdrop. GDP growth has slowed, inflation remains high, and private investment has stagnated. The official unemployment rate, while relatively low, masks the true extent of joblessness among young, educated individuals. Tax revenues are insufficient, and foreign debt repayments are putting a strain on development spending. Despite visible progress in major infrastructure projects, shortages of gas and electricity, coupled with weak logistics, continue to hinder investment and production.
In this context, the ambitious economic pledges of BNP and Jamaat are under scrutiny. Financing these initiatives is a key concern, raising the question of their long-term sustainability. Economists argue that the debate has shifted from the attractiveness of the promises to the economic conditions, institutional capacity, and public finances required to support them.
Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), highlights the need for clarity on financing, implementation timelines, processes, and institutional capacity strengthening. He believes that improved revenue collection could pave the way for the successful implementation of these long-term plans.
When it comes to job creation, the parties' pledges seem ambitious. BNP's promise to create one crore jobs within 18 months and Jamaat's commitment to provide skills training for one crore young people over five years and job access for 50 lakh people are significant undertakings. Economists point out that creating such a large number of jobs requires sustained GDP growth of over 8-10% and a substantial increase in investment.
A professor from the University of Dhaka's economics department emphasizes the need for clear plans to boost investment, industrialisation, and exports to make these employment pledges a reality. Private investment has remained stagnant, and without significant improvements, the job promises appear highly ambitious.
Furthermore, Bangladesh lacks specific studies on the investment required per job created, making it challenging to determine the feasibility of these targets.
On the tax front, Jamaat-e-Islami has proposed permanent cuts to corporate tax and value-added tax, while BNP has promised business-friendly reforms and deregulation without specifying tax rates. Business leaders support lower taxes but caution that without alternative revenue sources, budget deficits could widen, leading to inflation and debt.
Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), highlights the need for clarity on interest rates, management of the dollar crisis, and policy stability to encourage investment.
Social protection is another key area of focus for both parties. BNP has proposed unemployment allowances for educated job seekers, cash support through family cards, and expanded safety net programs. Jamaat, on the other hand, has pledged interest-free loans, direct cash transfers for vulnerable groups, and a welfare-oriented state model.
Currently, Bangladesh's social protection spending amounts to about Tk1.16 lakh crore annually, equivalent to roughly 2% of GDP. Increasing this allocation amidst high inflation and revenue constraints will be a challenge. BNP's proposal to issue family cards to four crore households would require significant financial resources.
Towfiqul Islam Khan from CPD emphasizes the need for higher revenue and subsidy reform to ensure the sustainability of expanded social protection measures. He suggests better targeting, digital databases, and reduced leakage to maximize the impact of existing resources.
In the industrialisation and energy sectors, both parties have proposed initiatives to address gas and electricity shortages and reduce agricultural electricity use. However, the reality is that these challenges persist, and maintaining or increasing subsidies would strain public finances further.
Agriculture remains a vital sector for Bangladesh's economy and employment. Both parties have prioritized the sector, proposing measures such as agricultural cards, fair prices, and agro-processing. However, rising production costs, higher fertilizer prices, and irrigation expenses are putting pressure on farmers.
To support the agriculture sector, the government has been increasing subsidies, allocating Tk40,000 crore in the current fiscal year's budget. Economists warn that further increases in subsidies will put additional pressure on the national budget.
Mashrur Riaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, believes that reducing the influence of middlemen in agricultural markets and ensuring fair prices for farmers could help curb the need for subsidies. He emphasizes the importance of large-scale investment, administrative efficiency, and technology adoption to drive sustainable development in agriculture.
ICT and freelancing are seen as potential growth drivers by both parties. BNP and Jamaat have outlined their visions for the sector, including international payment gateways, ICT jobs, and exports. Experts highlight the need for reforms in digital payments, data security, skills development, and access to global markets to unlock the sector's full potential.
Fahim Mashroor, CEO of Bdjobs and convenor of Voice for Reform, believes that with proper training, affordable technology, and special incentives, the targets set by the parties are achievable.
As Bangladesh's political parties present their election pledges, the question remains: Can they deliver on their promises and bring about the desired economic transformation? The road ahead is challenging, but with careful planning, realistic strategies, and a focus on sustainable development, Bangladesh can strive towards a brighter future. What are your thoughts on these ambitious pledges? Do you think they are achievable, or do they need further refinement? Share your insights in the comments below!
